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Doug Heye

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May 1, 2008 8:00 A.M.
The Clinton Factor?
Senator Hillary Clinton Enters “The No Spin Zone.”
Senator Hillary Clinton should have no chance to win the North Carolina primary. Nearly 40 percent of North Carolina primary voters are blacks, who, in the past, have rejected “electability” arguments against black candidates.
It’s also a state where the Clinton name has been mud. Bill Clinton never carried the state, even with neighboring Tennessean Al Gore on the ticket. Moreover, the Clinton aura contributed to the defeat of a Democratic Senate candidate in 2002 and 2004.
To overcome these hurdles, Clinton has needed to try something different — including reaching out to conservative Democrats, NASCAR fans, and military families (North Carolina is home to the fourth-largest population of military personnel in the nation), especially those in eastern North Carolina — from small tobacco towns to military installations such as Camp Lejeune and Fort Bragg.
These have not been dependable voters for Democrats in past federal elections. Many of those who voted for John Edwards in 1998 also supported Jesse Helms.
They also watch Fox News.
So, in what may be the most anticipated television interview since David Letterman finally landed Oprah Winfrey, Hillary Clinton appeared on Wednesday night’s edition of The O’Reilly Factor. It’s shocking, yes, but should not be terribly surprising.
Predictably, the Far Left is howling — how could Hillary Clinton sit down with Bill O’Reilly?! (Funny, the Left did not offer such strenuous objections to Senator Barack Obama’s willingness to sit down with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.) And while it may cause their collective head to explode, just as only Richard Nixon could go to China, perhaps only Hillary Clinton could pull off an interview on The Factor.
Except those hoping to see Clinton fail, liberals and progressives most likely did not tune in. Of North Carolina Democrats watching last night’s interview, many are those suffering from buyer’s remorse on Obama. They are votes she desperately needs.
By appearing on The O’Reilly Factor, the state’s most-watched news program, Clinton is sending a message to voters throughout eastern North Carolina.
She demonstrated a willingness to enter the “lion’s den” and not back down under aggressive questioning — the Sunday shows are tough, but unlikely to overtly accuse Clinton of waffling, misleading, or wanting to bankrupt the country. Prior to last night, it’s doubtful she had heard the word “bupkis” in an interview. But there she sat; speaking of fair and balanced coverage, while taking what may have been the closest thing to sniper fire Senator Clinton has ever seen.
Is it enough to pull out a victory? Probably not. Even with the Obama campaign’s recent troubles and Governor Mike Easley’s endorsement of Clinton, she trails in the polls.
Intentionally or not, the Obama campaign has been following a familiar Tobacco Road strategy. It’s called Four Corners, the offense made famous by UNC coaching legend Dean Smith. The team with the lead holds the ball while running out the clock. Passes may go slightly astray and there may be a dangerous trap or two (See: Wright, Rev. Jeremiah), but as long as the team with the lead holds the ball, the strategy is successful. This is why Obama turned down a North Carolina debate opportunity.
The odds are still against Senator Clinton. In addition to her demographic and historic challenges, perhaps most significantly, North Carolina’s early one-stop voting has taken place since April 17. Not only are most of these voters those responsive to Obama’s message, but one-stop early voting began before the Pennsylvania primary.
Fortunately for Clinton, she does not need an outright victory. Keeping the North Carolina score within single digits is its own victory — one that does not erase the popular votes gained in her Pennsylvania victory that put more time on the clock.
Her performance last night was not a slam dunk. But her very appearance on The O’Reilly Factor demonstrates her willingness to go for the steal and head for the basket.
Even if it only takes the game into overtime.
— Doug Heye is a veteran of political campaigns, Capitol Hill and the Bush administration. He served as communications director for Sen. Richard Burr (R., N.C.) both in the United States Senate and during his successful 2004 campaign. During the 2006 midterm elections, Heye served as communications director for the Michael Steele for Senate campaign in Maryland.