In the end those final polls suggesting a last-minute John Howard recovery turned out to be a mirage. The Aussies wanted a change, and Kevin Rudd, the schoolboyish Labor leader, had very effectively soothed away any fears that his government would be a change too far. The Labor party won by a solid seven-percent margin of victory nationally. It now controls not only the federal government but also all the state governments in the Australian Commonwealth. Most observers suggest it will remain in power for two three-year terms, since one-term governments are a rarity in Oz.
How will Labor govern? Rudd is a shrewd politician who accepts that Australia has been permanently transformed by Howard’s reforms. With the exception of a labor-deregulation law set for repeal, not a lot will change back. In general Rudd will try to take Australia down a Blair-like path of moderate social democracy. He has a greater chance of success than Blair did, because his pre-election promises (including tax cuts) have been specific, moderate, and popular. In the campaign, he was actually more fiscally conservative than Howard and the conservative coalition.
Like Blair, however, he’s leading a Labor party with a strong left wing. This means that the more he pleases the voters, the more he angers his backbenchers and his base in the cultural Left. For the moment that Left is quiet. It is grateful to Rudd and aware that Howard remains respected — Labor’s radical deputy leader, Julia Gillard, paid an unusually warm tribute to the outgoing prime minister on election night. But this restraint will soon atrophy. Rudd had better strengthen his grip on the party machine if he is to ensure that his reform program remains a moderate one. Three years is a short time. Unless he stamps his authority firmly and quickly on the government, he risks the Blairite fate of leaving office with his achievements still in prospect.
For America this change is tinged with regret — Howard was an usually generous and outspoken ally. Is the change, however, a consequential one? Among the many Australian institutions transformed by Howard is the Labor party. It has shed its earlier anti-Americanism and Rudd himself is firmly pro-American. Australians are the only nation to have fought alongside the U.S. in every war since 1914. That reflects a national pro-American disposition which is unlikely to change.
Even Rudd’s promise to withdraw from Iraq — a phased withdrawal of combat troops will begin in 2008 — is studiously moderate. Iraq was not an important issue in this election — even less so than three years ago. Rudd’s main foreign-policy pledge was to sign the Kyoto treaty. This is a claim of virtue rather than a practical policy. Most other U.S. allies are Kyoto signatories (though none have reduced their carbon emissions in line with their promises). It is unlikely to obstruct good relations with Washington.
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