Other states award some at-large delegates to the statewide winner, and some to the winner of each congressional district. Assuming (conservatively) that the statewide winners take at least one-third of the districts in each state, South Carolina will award at least 35 of its delegates to someone other than Rudy. Thompson led Georgia in September, but Huckabee might be the one to take at least 44 delegates there (“Fair Tax is unbeatable in that state,” one southern GOP political consultant tells me). He should also receive at least 33 in Oklahoma. Wyoming’s nominating convention will likely give Romney all or nearly all of the state’s 28 delegates (or 14 if party sanctions hold).
Rudy will receive few, if any, of Iowa’s 41 delegates, which are chosen in a painfully complicated four-step process lasting months after the January caucus. Other candidates will likely get at least 18 of New Hampshire’s 24 delegates, which are awarded proportionally.
So far, that makes for a very conservative estimate of 352 delegates, most of them chosen early, that will likely go to someone other than Giuliani. We’ve left 51 district delegates hanging in these states — Rudy will get some of those, but certainly not all — we’ll give him 30.
What about the states where Rudy is favored? Giuliani’s supporters made sure that New Jersey adopted “winner-take-all.” The mayor will probably win everything in Connecticut, Delaware, Virginia, Puerto Rico, and Rhode Island. These account for 190 delegates.
Florida is Giuliani’s best big early prospect. If Republicans back off from their penalty that would deprive the state of half its delegates, it will split 75 of its 114 delegates among the winners of its congressional districts (three each). Let’s give Rudy a big win and a generous 80 from the Sunshine State.
Then there are the two big states that Giuliani is supposedly counting on — New York and California. Both award all or nearly all of their delegates to the winner of each congressional district, not the statewide winner. Rudy will probably win most of the districts in New York — in fact, let’s just assume that he gets all 101 delegates (for a total of 371).
But what about California? It votes on Feb. 5. If Rudy gets 35 percent of the vote there — slightly better than his level in the most recent poll — it is unlikely that he would get even half of the state’s 173 delegates. It could be a wash, as will many states that award all or nearly all delegates proportionally and/or by Congressional District: Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, New Mexico, Texas, and Tennessee. Most of these are chosen on Feb. 5, and several on other candidates’ home turf. Throw in the June contest in South Dakota, and you get 858 delegates that will be fractured.
Wisconsin, Ohio, Maryland, and a few other states are only slightly more generous to the statewide winner, still awarding a majority of the delegates to the winners of congressional districts. If Giuliani hasn’t already run the table by the time they vote, add 162 more delegates into the “wash” category.
We have now covered nearly three-fourths of the Republican delegates. Under the generous assumption that Giuliani gets 40 percent of the “wash” delegates, the estimated running total looks something like this:
Giuliani: 809
All Others: 985
Under this relatively rosy scenario, Rudy has 33 percent of all delegates, with about a quarter left to be chosen. To get a majority, he would have to win most of the other battles in close states.
He would certainly need Missouri, which on Super Tuesday will give all 58 delegates to the winner. Giuliani led there in a poll last month, but Romney and others were still in the hunt — Huckabee has probably improved there as well, and could even be in the lead. Vermont, for which I cannot find any polls since February, will award all 14 delegates to the winner on March 4. The early Nevada caucus, in which Giuliani still led Romney last month, will determine 34 delegates, most going to the statewide winner.
Pennsylvanians will split up their 75 delegates in late April, with voters selecting individual delegates instead of the candidates themselves (they will also have the chance to select a candidate on a separate ballot, but this vote is “advisory” and non-binding). That gives a big advantage to Rudy, Romney, and possibly McCain — the candidates with the best organizational structures and the best endorsements. Other big fights could come in the Alaska, Maine and Minnesota caucuses, and in North Dakota. Idaho and Oregon award delegates proportionally. Colorado awards half by congressional district, half in a state convention.
A Big Mess
There is a clear path for Rudy to get 50 percent before the convention. Yet it is like a path up the mountainside — it is steep, and he could fall right off the cliff if even the slightest thing goes wrong. He must blow everyone away with “shock and awe” on Feb. 5, leaving absolutely no room for doubt. In order to do that, he might also need a few earlier victories, just to prevent a Super Tuesday disappointment. A loss or even a disappointingly close win in Florida could unravel him completely. And Rudy is already slipping. Yet even if he unravels, he could easily enter the national convention with a bare plurality of delegates, most of them gained on a single day in February.
Things might change if other candidates drop out early, but probably only if they drop out before Feb. 5. Even if things do change, they might not get any better for Rudy. Where would the dropouts’ supporters go? If Mitt Romney exits the race early, will his supporters really embrace Giuliani instead of, say, McCain or Huckabee? This is doubly true of Huckabee voters. Thompson would be more likely to endorse McCain. McCain would appear the most likely to endorse Giuliani, but what if he does well in New Hampshire and does not drop out? After a certain point, McCain might have an incentive to stay in it and try to win in a convention, where other candidates’ delegates might prefer him to Rudy and view him as the only one capable of winning the general election.
It may seem fanciful to imagine a multiple-ballot floor fight at the nominating convention, in which delegates could even choose someone who isn’t currently in the race. But as the Republican field levels out, it has never appeared more likely than it does right now.
A brokered convention, far from merely being a big mess, could also be very good for the Republican party. It would certainly make for better ratings, and perhaps a bigger boost for the nominee, than the sterile dog and pony shows that made up previous conventions. A brokered convention would allow for an airing of grievances for a party that has to decide its direction after a major loss.
Republicans might do well to welcome the chaos.
CORRECTION: This piece mistakenly named Texas as a Super Tuesday state. NRO apologizes for the error.
— David Freddoso is an NRO staff reporter.
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