The biggest story of the 2008 campaign so far may not be the fall or rise of any candidate, but the quick and quiet decline of the war on terror as a bone of political contention. Supposedly, the terror war is yesterday’s news, and in any case a losing issue for the Republicans in 2008. Yet this newly congealing conventional wisdom is mistaken. Republicans can win this election on national security. In fact, with its cover story this week, The Economist has dropped the winning argument into Republican laps, if only we have the guts and smarts to use it.
The success of the surge and the media’s aversion to that success have driven Iraq from the front pages. Putting aside the question of media bias, the fact is, Americans are weary of Iraq, and tired as well of our internal battles over the war. The public may be relieved at Iraq’s comparative turnaround, yet there’s still a feeling that the war was a mistake — or at least enough of a problem to cast doubt on hawkish solutions.
Still, the public worries about the perilous state of the world. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the vision of a chaotic, nuclear-armed Pakistan falling into Islamist hands electrified Americans and reminded them of the stakes in the overall war against terror. The public understands that Islamist extremism in a world of nuclear proliferation is still the greatest threat to our safety. Even so, Americans remain weary of what seem like ill-chosen battles, and eager for a break from having to think about war at all. That is the reality of our current mood — which doesn’t mean the war can’t return as an issue, only that there has to be a good reason.
Well, there is a good reason, and it’s called Iran. Of course, last December’s National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), by claiming that Iran has long-since abandoned its nuclear weapons program, effectively took the Bush administration’s military option in Iran off the table, thereby letting the air out of national security as a campaign issue. Rudy Giuliani’s ill-fated release of a campaign ad on the Iranian threat, just as the NIE report broke, marked the moment of political transition. Since then, Iran has been AWOL from our public debates, and with it the most fateful and pressing decision in the broader war against terror.
There’s just one problem. The NIE report is misleading and mendacious nonsense. What’s more, our very hardly-neocon European allies are just now waking up to that fact.
The Economist’s “Has Iran Won?” cover story (consisting of both an opinion piece and an extended issue briefing) makes it clear that the clean bill of health so misleadingly granted Iran by the NIE has effectively unraveled five years of painstaking European diplomacy. According to
The Economist, the NIE report was a huge mistake — an intellectually distorted product that has not only left Europe’s diplomats angry and despondent but has killed the once genuine prospect of cooperation from Russia and China, and left Iran in position for a nuclear breakout during the next presidential term. The title of
The Economist’s extended analysis gives a feel for this remarkable
cover story: “As the enrichment machines spin on: How America’s own intelligence services have brought international policy on Iran to the edge of collapse.”
The emerging diplomatic disaster spawned by the NIE report, which is increasingly recognized as misleading, raises the prospect of flipping the current political dynamic. The NIE had seemed to confirm the dovish Democratic line: Fears of Iran are greatly exaggerated. So let’s drop our guns, hand the problem back to the diplomats (especially those helpful Europeans), and concentrate on domestic issues instead.
Yet, as the truth about the NIE report emerges from decidedly non-neocon sources like
The Economist, it’s increasingly clear that the real NIE story is actually a Republican warning come true. Dovish intelligence analysts eager to discredit the administration and tie its hands have not only distorted and betrayed the truth about Iran, they have undercut and infuriated the very European diplomats America’s doves look to for approval and assistance. The NIE lied. Europe’s peacemakers cried. Seizing on this story could bring national security back into the heart of this election campaign — and for all the right reasons.
No one’s saying the NIE’s author’s intended to harm America or to help Iran get the bomb. This is more a “shoot-yourself-in-the-foot” narrative than a “stab-in-the-back” one, where ham-handed attempts by dovish bureaucrats to influence policy ended up distorting intelligence and inadvertently harming the West’s diplomatic efforts.
The Economist calls the NIE an “own goal,” as when a soccer player accidentally scores against his own team. The upshot is that it’s not the hawks, but bureaucratic doves, who can justly be accused of distorting intelligence for political reasons. Nor is
The Economist shy about pointing up how Democrats have foolishly allowed their opposition to the president to play into Iranian hands: “Presuming Mr. Bush’s guns to be now truly spiked, his critics at home are cheering along with the Iranians.” Up to now, the NIE report has killed Iran as a campaign issue. Yet
The Economist’s cover story shows that the NIE report itself is the issue — and a winning one for Republicans.
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