Forget about the national polls: The 2008 election, like all others, will be decided by the votes in particular states and congressional districts. If you know where to watch and what to look for, you can filter out much of the unnecessary noise in the evening’s election coverage.

What follows is a quick look not only at the most important states for the presidential race, but also at the House and Senate races to watch when you sit down on Tuesday night.

		Steyn: The Superbower Blase: A Medicaid Buy-Off Sanders: Blanche Lincoln’s Balancing Act Costa: Saturday Night Fever Miller: The Man Who Would Kill Lincoln Hibbs: Just Bite Her Already Goldberg: We Need Your Help Spruiell: Welcome to the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy Editors: End It, Don’t Amend It Goldberg: Palinophobes Hate First, Ask Questions Later Murdock: Medicare: A Glimpse of the Future? Krauthammer: Travesty in New York Charen: Holder’s True Motive Lowry: Barack Obama’s Chump Diplomacy Spakovsky: Criminalizing Health-Care Freedom Anderson: Roadmap to Victory

This first installment looks at important races in states whose polls close in the first hour, after seven o’clock.

7:00 p.m. EST

INDIANA (11 Electoral Votes)

Indiana is usually the first to report in presidential elections, and it always goes Republican. Most of the state’s polls close at 6 p.m., but two important Obama-friendly counties — LaPorte and Lake — are in the Central time zone and will not close until 7 p.m.

If John McCain loses this state, you can go to bed early in the secure knowledge that Barack Obama is the next president. On the other hand, if McCain surprises with a ten-point victory, it is a possible early sign that this cycle’s polling overstates Obama’s support all over the country.

Democrats will easily defend the three House seats they picked up here in 2006. They are also making a long-shot play for Rep. Mark Souder’s (R.) Fort Wayne seat. Challenger Michael Montangano (D.). is at least within striking distance. A loss for Souder would be a terrible sign for the GOP.

Gov. Mitch Daniels (R.) will easily win a second term over former Rep. Jill Long Thompson (D.)

KENTUCKY (8 Electoral Votes)

John McCain will win this one convincingly. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R.) is another story. He has run his re-election race based almost entirely on his ability to bring pork projects back to the Bluegrass State. McConnell is expected to defeat Lt. Gov. Bruce Lunsford (D.), but the result will be close.


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