The political scene in Israel is a riddle. In part, this derives from the complications of the Israeli system of proportional representation—34 parties stood in the recent election, guaranteeing fragmentation. And in part, this reflects uncertainty about how to proceed in what, contrary to all evidence, is still widely described as “the peace process.”
Tzipi Livni and her center-left Kadima party hold that concessions to the Palestinians will bring peace, while Benjamin Netanyahu and the center-right Likud believe that any such concessions only endanger security. In the elections, these two mainstream parties won a more or less equivalent number of seats, allowing both to claim victory. There’s not that much point in doing so, however, because neither holds anything like the number of seats necessary for a parliamentary majority and the formation of a government. So both have to assemble a coalition, and this involves turning to the minority parties, who thus find themselves kingmakers. Four such parties have a total of 44 seats in a house of 120, but of course they differ among themselves in their objectives, so no coherent bloc is imaginable.
What happens next seems a mixture of Lewis Carroll at his wildest and the practices of ancient Byzantium. Shimon Peres, the octogenarian president, has to decide whom to call upon to form a government, and this has to be done within time limits. Peres has the right to ask whoever he thinks has the best prospect. For Peres, peace with the Palestinians has always been just around the corner, and his heart is surely with Livni. For the minority parties, however, national security is a top consideration, and they are not eager to collaborate with Livni. Netanyahu may have his chance, after all.
The next few weeks, then, will reveal who is willing to compromise proclaimed beliefs and ideals, and what the price will be for doing so. Secret horse-trading in backrooms is inevitable in the circumstances. Informed commentators in Israel are predicting that Livni and Netanyahu may be willing to participate in a joint government, and in that case enough minority parties might be persuaded to throw their lots in, too. However, Livni has been trying to persuade Netanyahu into just such a coalition these past months and has failed to do so; hence these elections. Any attempt to make Kadima and Likud ideologically compatible is virtually certain to lead to yet another election.
Israel wants peace, but has no better idea than anyone else how to obtain it. That aspect of the riddle, at least, never changes.
