In a political year like 2008, what difference do gubernatorial elections make? The presidential race promises to be earth-shattering and history-making. Continuing their retreat on Capitol Hill, Republicans assume they will again lose seats in both chambers (they’re right) and simply pray that they’ll have enough power left to block the initiatives of an Obama administration. With only eleven governors’ races on the ballot in November, mostly in small and mid-sized states, you might think the Democrats and Republicans will devote scant attention to them.
You’d be wrong.
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This year’s crop of match-ups boasts some truly compelling stories. In Washington, for example, Democrat Christine Gregoire edged Republican Dino Rossi in 2004 by one of the narrowest margins in U.S. history, 129 votes, after two controversial recounts. Gregoire and Rossi will face off again this year. In Missouri, the GOP’s Matt Blunt won a tough race in 2004 but announced early this year that he wouldn’t seek re-election, saying he had accomplished pretty much everything he wanted to in one term. Meanwhile, a succession of ethical storms has pounded his approval ratings down into the low 40s. His father, Roy Blunt, has endorsed a fellow Republican congressman for the gubernatorial nomination. The other major GOP primary candidate is essentially running against both Blunts and the Republican Congress, from the right.
Beyond making for great political theater, governorships matter to the nation’s politics. They can determine the fate of fiscal restraint, tax reform, school choice, and even environmental regulation. Gubernatorial elections groom future candidates for Senate and president — witness the current veep punditry this year about governors Kathleen Sebelius (D., Kan.), Ted Strickland (D., Ohio), Tim Kaine (D., Va.), Ed Rendell (D., Pa.), Bobby Jindal (R., La.), Sarah Palin (R., Alaska), Mark Sanford (R., S.C.), and Tim Pawlenty (R., Minn.).
Also, these contests could affect the federal races. Any reasonable plan for stopping Obama requires keeping Missouri, North Carolina, and West Virginia in the GOP column without spending a lot of money. McCain also wouldn’t mind reclaiming New Hampshire, a Kerry state in 2004, while the Obama team is making a play for improbable Western states such as Montana and North Dakota. All will elect governors this year. As the
Wall Street Journal reported July 3, Republican fundraisers are now telling key donors that giving (without legal restrictions) to the Republican Governors Association can help McCain’s cause by routing funds into these battlegrounds for voter registration, turnout drives, and other expenditures that help the whole GOP slate.
