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John J. Miller
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October 30, 2006 5:33 A.M.
Fearing Election Day?
Some are, for sure.
Tonight is Devil’s Night — a time when petty vandals throw eggs at the homes of their neighbors and unscrupulous political operatives knock down the campaign signs of opposing candidates. For the Senate’s 55 Republicans, perhaps nothing is scarier than the prospect of a Democratic majority, which will be obtained if Democrats gain six seats next week on Election Day.
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Herewith, a rundown of the most important races, updating last week’s review. Next week: Predictions.
ARIZONA: It’s a good thing for GOP senator Jon Kyl that he had such a padded lead a month ago, because Democratic businessman Jim Pederson has made gains, no doubt from the fact that late-deciding voters generally break against the incumbent. Last week, an Arizona State survey of likely voters put Kyl at 47 percent and Pederson at 41 percent. LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
CONNECTICUT: This race between Democratic candidate Ned Lamont and Sen. Joe Lieberman, who is running as an independent, continues to split the national Democratic party: Last week, Senators John Kerry of Massachusetts and Barack Obama of Illinois campaigned with Lamont and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana appeared with Lieberman, who is favored to win reelection. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
MARYLAND: Republican lieutenant governor Michael Steele walloped Democratic congressman Ben Cardin in a debate so badly last week that Cardin refused to show up the next day at an NAACP forum that he was expected to attend. Given Cardin’s difficulties with black voters, that may have been a mistake. A Rasmussen poll of likely voters puts Steele within striking distance, trailing by just seven points, 49 percent to 42 percent. When uncommitted voters who are leaning toward one of the candidates are factored in, the result is 50 percent for Cardin and 45 percent for Steele. Yesterday’s Washington Post poll of likely voters, however, gave Cardin an 11-point lead, 54 percent to 43 percent. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
MICHIGAN: Voters here already know that their economy is in shambles. Now they have to deal with the collapse of the Detroit Tigers in the World Series. Will this finally agitate them enough to dump Democratic incumbents, such as Sen. Debbie Stabenow? Not according to last week’s Detroit News poll of likely voters: It gave her a 12-point lead over GOP nominee Michael Bouchard, 50 percent to 38 percent. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
MINNESOTA: Republican congressman Mark Kennedy had high hopes earlier this year, but Democratic nominee Amy Klobuchar is walking away with this one. Last week, a pair of polls gave her a double-digit lead. Too bad for the GOP that the unpopular Sen. Mark Dayton didn’t run for reelection. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
MISSOURI: The race between Republican senator Jim Talent and Democratic candidate Claire McCaskill remains incredibly close, but there are also signs that Talent is pulling away, however slightly. Five of the last seven polls of likely voters give him a lead, but none by more than three points. A survey by Rasmussen puts it at 50 percent for Talent and 48 percent for McCaskill, who recently lent her campaign $500,000 in an effort to chip away at Talent’s money advantage. Sunday, Research 2000 said the contest was tied at 47 percent. This is a must-win race for Democrats if they hope to gain a Senate majority. TOSS UP
MONTANA: The Big Sky State may be home to the biggest gender gap in the country. Last week’s Mason-Dixon poll gave Democratic nominee Jon Tester a small edge over Republican senator Conrad Burns, 46 percent to 43 percent. Among women, Tester’s advantage was 53 percent to 34 percent. Among men, Burns was ahead, 52 percent to 39 percent. Burns, who has more cash going into the final stretch, tends to lead in the flat eastern part of the state and Tester tends to lead in the mountainous west. LEANING DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER
NEW JERSEY: Only 28 percent of voters have an unfavorable impression of Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, even in the wake of corruption charges, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll of likely voters. That survey gave Menendez a small lead over Republican nominee Tom Kean Jr., 40 percent to 39 percent. (A Rasmussen poll released over the weekend had Kean ahead by two points.) The good news for Kean is that he has stronger support among members of his own party than Menendez does among his, and that independents favor him, 39 percent to 31 percent. Will the state supreme court’s diktat on gay marriage energize Kean’s base? TOSS UP
OHIO: Democratic congressman Sherrod Brown almost certainly won’t defeat Republican senator Mike DeWine by 20 points — although that’s the result forecast by SurveyUSA’s poll of likely voters last week, with Brown at 57 percent and DeWine at 37 percent. Rasmussen put the gap at a closer but still substantial 11 points. Brown is poised to become the next Howard Metzenbaum. LEANING DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER
PENNSYLVANIA: Republican senator Rick Santorum has delivered a great stump speech in recent days about the importance of the war on terrorism. “Many Americans are sleepwalking, just as they did before the world wars of the last century,” he warns. Unfortunately for conservatives, Pennsylvanians appear ready to sleepwalk to their voting booths next week and elect Democratic nominee Bob Casey Jr. Yesterday’s Philadelphia Inquirer poll of likely voters put Casey on top, 54 percent to 38 percent. LEANING DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER
RHODE ISLAND: Only 33 percent of voters backed GOP senator Lincoln Chafee in a recent Rhode Island College poll of likely voters, and 43 percent went for Democratic nominee Sheldon Whitehouse. That leaves an awful lot of people who still haven’t made up their minds—an indication that neither candidate is very impressive. Despite the anti-Republican climate, this is a race that Chafee’s late father, the former senator John Chafee, probably would have been able to win. His son isn’t nearly as good at politics, in Washington or at home. LEANING DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER
TENNESSEE: Democratic congressman Harold Ford Jr. has run a very good campaign, but it looks like he’s going to come up short in his bid against Republican nominee Bob Corker. Although a SurveyUSA poll of likely voters had the race tied at 48 percent last week, Corker has held a lead of two to seven points in most other nonpartisan surveys. A Mason-Dixon poll revealed one of Ford’s vulnerabilities: 36 percent of likely voters view him unfavorably, compared to only 27 percent for Corker. LEANING REPUBLICAN RETENTION
VIRGINIA: Can we officially declare this contest between Republican senator George Allen and Democratic nominee James Webb to be the year’s strangest Senate race? We’ve gone from “macaca” to Allen’s Jewish ancestry to the N-word to the accusation in last week’s Washington Post that Allen stole some kid’s bike in high school. The latest development involves provocative excerpts from Webb’s well-regarded novels. Coming this week: Charges that Allen once read his sister’s secret diary, followed by the revelation that a mean-spirited Webb refused to let his children ever believe in the tooth fairy. With a single exception, every poll over the last month has given Allen a lead. Some of these leads, however, are only two or three points. Watch for Allen to get a boost on Election Day from voters who haven’t been comfortable telling pollsters about their preference for him. LEANING REPUBLICAN RETENTION
WASHINGTON: Republican nominee Mike McGavick continues to trail Democratic senator Maria Cantwell: Sunday’s Rasmussen poll of likely voters put Cantwell ahead, 54 percent to 42 percent. Would it have made a difference if Dino Rossi, the GOP’s almost-governor, had run? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
— John J. Miller is national political reporter for National Review and the author, most recently, of A Gift of Freedom: How the John M. Olin Foundation Changed America.
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